Mortgage Rates and Treasury Yields: What It Means for Homebuyers

When you're eyeing mortgage rates, understanding the likely direction they're heading can be complex. Mortgage rates are known to be challenging to predict. If you're a homeowner or a prospective buyer, this uncertainty can be disconcerting. But fear not – there's a historical clue that might shed some light on the future of these rates: the relationship between the 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield.

A Historical Perspective

Since Freddie Mac initiated mortgage rate records back in 1972, a clear pattern has emerged between these two metrics. As shown in the accompanying graph, the average spread (difference) between the 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield over the past half-century has consistently remained around 1.72 percentage points (or 172 basis points).

The pattern is quite straightforward: as Treasury Yields increase, mortgage rates tend to follow suit, and vice versa. This synchronization, however, has seen an unexpected twist lately – the spread is widening far beyond its usual range.

The Widening Spread: Why Does It Happen?

Why is the spread between the 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield expanding beyond its typical average? The primary culprit is uncertainty in the financial markets. Factors such as inflation, various economic elements, and Federal Reserve (The Fed) decisions all play a part in determining mortgage rates, contributing to the growing spread.

The Importance for Homebuyers

While these details may seem overly technical, understanding this spread holds substantial significance for potential homebuyers. It essentially implies that, according to the historical norm, there is potential for mortgage rates to become more favorable today.

Experts, too, agree that improvement is on the horizon, given that inflation continues to subside. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, encapsulates this sentiment:

"The assumption that the spread, and thereby mortgage rates, will decrease in the latter half of the year if the Fed eases its monetary tightening measures is reasonable. However, it's improbable that the spread will revert to its historical mean of 170 basis points, as some underlying risks persist."

A piece from Forbes reinforces this perspective, stating:

"While mortgage rates are expected to remain high due to ongoing economic uncertainty and the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, it's believed that rates have already reached their peak last fall and will likely descend to some extent later this year, barring unexpected surprises."

The Bottom Line

Whether you're dipping your toes into homeownership for the first time or considering a move to a home that better suits your present needs, staying informed about mortgage rates and expert projections for the coming months is vital.

Understanding the relationship between the 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield is more than an exercise in financial geekery. It's a tool that can help you anticipate market trends and make informed decisions about one of life's most significant investments: your home.

Don't be daunted by the numbers and jargon. At Your Home Sold Guaranteed Realty, we're here to break it down for you, making the complex simple and the uncertain clear. Mortgage rates may be unpredictable, but with insights like these, you'll be better prepared for whatever the market brings.

9-6-2023